Is Taiwan Worth It?

There has been a lot of debate over what is going to happen with the Taiwan question, whether China will invade, what the U.S. will do, etc.

I want to throw out a hypothetical here. Let's say China invades and overtakes Taiwan. What should be the United States' response? China has threatened on several occasions to use nuclear weapons if the U.S. were to get involved. Should the United States risk all-out war with China to protect Taiwan? Or should the U.S. just let China have Taiwan, and hope that will satisfy her?

My opinion is that losing Taiwan to China would be disastrous, and we should do whatever it takes to keep Taiwan out of Chinese hands. Taiwan has great economic reserves and technological capability (almost all of the world's microchips are made there), and would be a huge asset to China.

I see a parallel between this and the Munich accords. It may have seemed preferrable to give Czechoslovakia to Hitler to avoid all-out war, but in the end it only made him stronger and much more difficult to deal with later. It also led him to believe that he could be aggressive with no repercussions. I don't want to risk that happening with China.

I hope it doesn't come to this, but if it did, I think we should be ready to do what it takes.

The "Main Enemy"

In 1990, the Chinese government officially declared the United States its "main enemy" (Mosher, 2000). Up until that time, there had been a tenuous alliance between the U.S. and China in order to deter its main enemy at the time, the USSR. Once the Soviet Union fell, China switched its focus back to the US. We, however, continued to treat China as an ally.

In 1994 Deng Xiaoping, China's preeminent post-Mao leader, stated that China should "...hide our capabilities and bide our time." Yu Yanyao, the executive vice president of the Central (Communist) Party School further explained this principle thus: "'Hiding our capacities' means concealing our aspiration and talent; 'biding our time' means undergoing all possible hardships and living in seclusion to await the opportune moment" (Yanyao, 2003).

The vice commandant of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences stated in 1996, "[As for the U.S.] it will be absolutely necessary that we quietly nurse our sense of vengeance...we must conceal our abilities and bide our time" (FEER, 1996).

In 2000, the Chinese minister of defense declared "With the United States, war is inevitable...the Chinese armed forces must control the initiative...we must make sure that we would win this modern high tech war that the mighty bloc headed by the U.S. hegemonists may launch to interfere in our affairs." (Ming, 2000). Can you imagine if U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld had said the same thing about China? The world would be in an uproar. And yet will we sit by and ignore it when it is said by the Chinese minister of defense?

To dismiss the statements of Chinese leaders would be to make the same mistake we made in dismissing bin Laden's threats during the 90's. Unfortunately, this time the consequences could be far worse.

References

Cheng Ming (Hong Kong), [in Chinese], Jan. 4, 2000, broadcast on "Part 3 Asia-Pacific, "Summary of the World", BBC, January 6, 2000, FE/D3730/F2.

Constantine C. Menges, Ph.D., "China: The Gathering Threat", Nelson Current, 2005.

Far Eastern Economic Review (FEER), October 3, 1996.

Hsu, "Rise of Modern China", 935.

Stephen W. Mosher, "Hegemon", (San Francisco: Encounter, 2000), 7.

Yu Yanyao, "Epoch-making Significance of Hiding our Capabilities to Bide Our Time," [in Chinese], "Liaowang", March 17, 2003.

Note: nearly all of the references listed above were discovered in the book "China: The Gathering Threat", Intro. and Chs. 1-2.

The Kim Jong Il show

Recently there has been a muffled discussion as to where exactly the North Korean leader may be. http://www.sltrib.com/search/ci_3409357
If you consider running around Guangzhou supported by a 30 car motorcade all the while evicting residents of local hotels a marriage to secrecy, you've either underestimated the ambitious Japanese media or your looking to draw attention upon yourself.
North Korea, a declared communist state naturally seeks assistance through like-minded governments. China's role in handling North Korea needs to be asserted in order to shift international policy in China's favor. The recent topics of discussion have been primarily focused on convincing North Korea to take up it's cousin's economic policy, implementing minor reforms in order to become more autonomous and economically independent.
Despite risking short term troubles with U.S. policy makers, the long term benefits of support leading to a stable North Korea will reap 2 fold rewards for China. The subsidies being shoveled out to North Korea by China are the primary point of order; an increase in Korean marketability would allow for the development of a more solid infrastructure and decrease the necessity of China-based financial life support. Furthermore, were Korea to implement China's policy the U.S. would enjoy the benefit of a less threatened entity of East Asia.
It is incumbent upon China to take care of it's ally, and as such it only makes sense to attempt to give Korea the opportunity to develop economically.
As of now, even if the attempt at secrecy of the eccentric leader to the north should be jeopardized, I would only hope that Kim and Jintao would reach some sort of conclusion during his stay in southern China.

The People's Army In Space?

China just launched its second successful two-manned spacecraft on Oct. 12, 2005. It was piloted to a successful landing 5 days later. This successful flight is said by many to have firmly planted the country as the world's 3rd space power, behind the former Soviet Union and the United States.

The main concern I have with China's increasing space capabilities is the threat of them using this technology to bolster their military prowess. Analysts in the Department of Defense have assessed that military capability "is likely one of the primary drivers behind Beijing’s space endeavors and a critical component."

Many people fear a potential confrontation between China and the United States, citing China's communist system and their past and present statements of hostility towards the U.S. as evidence. On top of that, rising hostilities over the Taiwan question recently prompted a Chinese general to threaten to nuke the United States if she interfered in Taiwan.

I believe the rise of China's economic and military power is alarming, and is something that we need to keep an eye on, especially given the hostility their government has shown towards us over the years.

BLOCK 1 ASSIGNMENT

We have discussed several characteristics common to political systems in ancient China. What did China’s revolutionaries – the reformers, reactionaries, and revolutionaries -- reject about previous political systems? What major figures, ideas and events help explain the evolution of China’s revolution? What gave rise to nationalism? Communism? Was the revolution a complete repudiation of the old system? If not, what characteristics of the old persisted? Why? How closely did China’s communist revolution track the communist revolution in the Soviet Union?

Develop a well-argued essay to address these questions and your classmates as they respond. Post your argument as a comment to this post.

Lien Chen's multi-faceted visit to the mainland

If we want to discuss the implications of Taiwan, we should at least jump back a bit and examine relatively recent developments that will aide us in the understanding of current fellings between Taiwan and mainland China. http://english.cctv.com/english/20050504/100060.shtml
The KMT's chairman Lien Chen, in his last visit to the mainlnand (the first in 60 years), expressed a mutual assurance that both countries are working together toward a mutual win-win relationship; however, there are undertones within the articles that echo of pride on the part of the KMT leader. For one, claimed the KMT to be the ringleaderbehind such pushes in legislation regarding the "1992 consensus" stating that the two sides will operate under their own standards so long as "we stay within the one china framework."
Frankly, as is often debated in and amongst a paranoid american public, China's overwhelming display of force militarily leave's Taiwan with no leg to stand on insofar as proposals are concerned. To an extent it's easy to agree with this, at least in the gool 'ol days, Taiwan would have little chance of fending off a kick-in-the-door invasion from the mainland; however, seeing that, ideally, we've all grown up internationally I would like to first offer the argument that economic repercussions would be more of an initiative for China and Taiwan to stick together. China's lucrative corner of the market in manufacturing allows Taiwan's major companies access to investment opportunities that would otherwise be soured by a push for independence. Furthermore, it is within China's interest to keep Taiwan within its sphere of influence (not only as an interest in pride and securing its periphery) as it is a valid assumption that those countries involved with trade or relations of any kind tend to take up policies that mimic those of their trading partners. (I'm drawing a blank on the actual term for this)
My question is this, despite the apparently friendly welcome of the KMT chairman to the mainland would a serious move for independence draw out enough controversy to sever trade relations with the mainland? I'm also curious of whether or not the KMT actually plays a large role in this as it is no longer a majority power in the unicameral Yuan. www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/tw.html

Welcome to our class blog. Have at it!